Consumer Price Index (CPI)

All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) (points)– Nov 2025

Overall CPI Index (Points): The All-India Consumer Price Index (CPI – General) for November 2025 stands at 197.9 (Provisional), up from 197.3 in October 2025, indicating a moderate month-on-month increase.
The rise in the CPI index reflects partial normalisation of prices, particularly in food and select non-food components, and is consistent with the rebound in headline inflation to 0.71% from October’s historic low.

Headline Figures (Index Points)

• November 2025: 197.9
• October 2025: 197.3
• November 2024: 196.5
• Change from October 2025: +0.6 points (MoM)
• Rural CPI Index: 199.6 (up from 199.0 in October 2025)
• Urban CPI Index: 195.9 (up from 195.4 in October 2025)

Key Drivers for Change

• Upward pressures:
  1. Food & Beverages: While food inflation remained negative, the intensity of deflation eased in November, leading to a month-on-month increase in the food index—especially in vegetables, eggs, meat & fish, and spices.
  2. Housing (Urban): Marginal increase driven by steady rentals and service-related charges, keeping the housing index firm.
  3. Miscellaneous Group: Continued upward movement in personal care & effects, education, recreation, and household services, reflecting sticky service-sector inflation.
  4. Health & Education: Both categories recorded incremental increases, contributing to the overall rise in the CPI index despite easing YoY inflation rates.
• Partial offset:
  1. Food Inflation (YoY): Food prices remain well below year-ago levels (CFPI –3.91%), limiting the pace of CPI index increase.
  2. Transport & Communication: Subdued inflation (0.88% YoY) helped contain upward pressure from mobility-related costs.
  3. Fuel & Light: Although fuel inflation picked up to 2.32% YoY, month-on-month increases remained contained, preventing sharper index acceleration.

Inflation Dynamics, Policy Signals & Consumer Outlook

• Inflationary Cycle:
  1. The CPI index rose to 197.9 in November 2025 from 197.3 in October, indicating a moderate month-on-month increase after October marked the trough in price momentum.
  2. Headline inflation rebounded to 0.71% from 0.25% in October, confirming that the extreme disinflation phase driven by food prices has bottomed out.
  3. Food inflation remains negative but has moderated (CFPI –3.91%), reducing its drag on CPI, while service-led components—personal care, education, health, housing—continue to exert steady upward pressure.
  4. The current phase reflects normalisation rather than resurgence, with inflation dynamics increasingly shaped by core services instead of food deflation.
• Policy Outlook:
  1. The RBI is expected to maintain its policy pause, as inflation remains well below the 4% target, but the rebound in CPI and food prices limits the scope for immediate easing.
  2. Sticky core inflation (education, health, housing, personal care) continues to anchor medium-term inflation expectations.
  3. Recent rupee depreciation and imported inflation risks (crude oil, edible oils, fertilisers) add a layer of caution, reinforcing a wait-and-watch stance rather than a shift toward rate cuts.
  4. Policy focus is likely to remain on inflation durability, FX stability, and external sector risks, rather than headline CPI alone.
• Consumer Outlook:
  1. The rise in the CPI index signals persistent cost-of-living pressures, despite headline inflation remaining low by historical standards.
  2. Consumers continue to benefit from lower prices in vegetables and pulses, but the relief is less intense than in October.
  3. Urban households face sustained pressure from housing, education, healthcare, and personal services.
  4. Rural households continue to see relatively stronger relief from food deflation, though gains are partially offset by higher edible oil prices.

Impact on People

• Households:
  1. Personal care items, fruits, and service expenses continue to weigh on monthly budgets.
  2. Ongoing deflation in vegetables and pulses still provides a cushion, but its impact is diminishing.
  3. Healthcare and education costs remain structurally high, acting as long-term financial stress points for middle-income families.
• Rural vs Urban:
  1. Rural: Greater benefit from food deflation and relatively stable service costs has supported purchasing power.
  2. Urban: Continued increases in housing rents, education fees, healthcare, and household services keep urban inflation firmer and living costs elevated.

Impact on Market

• Monetary Policy: 
  1. Headline inflation at 0.71% keeps policy comfortably below target, supporting a pause.
  2. However, fading food deflation, sticky core inflation, and rupee weakness limit the case for near-term rate cuts.
• Bond Market: 
  1. Low inflation continues to support stable bond yields, but: Persistent service inflation and imported inflation risks from INR depreciation prevent markets from pricing aggressive easing.
  2. Yield outlook remains range-bound rather than bullish.
• Equity Market: 
  1. Lower inflation supports consumption sentiment and rate-sensitive sectors (banks, autos, real estate).
  2. FMCG firms face mixed effects: cheaper agri inputs vs rising personal care and packaging costs.
  3. Rural consumption recovery remains uneven, linked closely to farm income dynamics.
• Currency (INR): 
  1. The rupee has come under significant pressure, sliding sharply against the US dollar amid Global dollar strength, Higher crude prices, and Portfolio outflows.
  2. Low domestic inflation provides limited support, but external factors are currently dominant, increasing imported inflation.

Analytical Insights

• The rise in the CPI index to 197.9 in November 2025 confirms that October was the low point for price momentum.
• Headline inflation’s rebound, despite still-negative food inflation, highlights the growing influence of services and imported costs.
• Rural CPI (199.6) remains well above urban CPI (195.9), reflecting stronger food-price effects in rural areas and service-led inflation in cities.
• Core categories remain structurally firm: Health Index: 204.4, Education Index: 195.9, Miscellaneous Index: 196.7.
• The coexistence of low headline inflation, rising CPI index points, sticky services, and currency weakness underscores India’s key challenge: Achieving durable price stability while managing service inflation and external-sector vulnerabilities.

Sectoral CPI Index Values Highlights – Nov 2025

• Education Index: 195.9 (vs. 195.9 in October 2025 — unchanged)
• Health Index: 204.4 (vs. 204.3 in October 2025)
• Food Index (CFPI): 201.6 (vs. 200.5 in October 2025)
• Rural CPI Index: 199.6 (vs. 199.0 in October 2025)
• Urban CPI Index: 195.9 (vs. 195.4 in October 2025)
• Housing Index (Urban only): 188.4 (vs. 188.1 in October 2025)
• Transport & Communication Index: 172.4 (vs. 172.3 in October 2025)
• Fuel & Light Index: 180.7 (vs. 180.3 in October 2025)
• Miscellaneous Index: 196.7 (vs. 196.4 in October 2025)